The Toronto real estate market is being driven by these major factors.
The first is restricted supply. Eleven years ago, the Liberal government froze development on 1.4 million acres across 325 km of land from the Niagara River through Hamilton (Golden Horseshoe area), all across the north of the GTA and over to Lake Scugog and Rice Lake, under the Greenbelt Act 2005. This had the effect of creating the “GTA Island”, and like Manhattan in New York City, if you can’t afford to buy there, you will commute one to two hours to get to there.
The second factor is rapid population growth that increases demand.
The population of GTA and surrounding area has grown from 3.7 million people in 1986, to 5.5 million in 2005, to 6.3 million now. It will be 7.3 million people in 2021 and 9.1 million in 2036!
If you remember taking an economics course, you will recall a concept called supply and demand. If there is an increase in demand, there must either be a price or quantity adjustment. Right now, we have no capacity to increase the quantity of land available in the GTA and as a result, land prices have soared for building lots and condo development sites.
We also have record low interest rates. A $500,000 mortgage carries for $2,117/month at today’s interest rate. The same mortgage at 10 per cent interest is $4,472/month. A $1 million mortgage at today’s rates carries for $4,234/month.
The last time we had 10 per cent interest rates was 20 years ago and they have been falling ever since. In the last 20 years, there have only been two quarters when prices dropped in Toronto…see the correlation between prices and interest rates?
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